Market Analysis

  • Guzman Share Monthly Repurchase Report - March 2018
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for March 2018

    Summary: Despite being known for its “madness”, March was relatively calm with new share repurchase authorizations. Volume of new authorizations announced was the lowest in over four years; however, the number of announcements was the median value in that same period. No mega-announcements in March, rather a slew of smaller plans. This doesn’t come as much of a surprise as, historically, March is one of the quieter months, bookended by typically active months in February and April (in line with earnings schedules).

    Even with a slow March, Q1 2018 proved to be robust. Since Q1’14, the average volume authorized for repurchases has been ~$159BN; in Q1’18 companies announced authorizations of $206BN, nearly 30% above average. Following the much-mentioned tax cuts, and already with record cash on hand, buyback activity is on the rise early in 2018.

    Read full report here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update March 2018.pdf

  • Guzman Share Monthly Repurchase Report - January 2018
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for January 2018

    Summary: Perhaps “repurchase more stock” was the New Year’s Resolution for corporate America, with above average authorization volume announced in January. The average volume announced has been ~$50BN/mo. for the past few years, so January’s $65BN represents an ~30% above average month. The strong start to the year could be attributed to continued tailwinds from tax reform and cash repatriation. While it may appear as if the “Technology” sector was notably absent, January top 5 companies included Alphabet ($8.6BN) and eBay ($6BN), which are technically classified as “Communications” companies now.

    Read full report here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update Jan 2018.pdf



  • Guzman Share Monthly Repurchase Report with 2017 Review - December 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for December 2017

    Summary: December brought a huge surge in buyback authorization volume as U.S. corporations found a shiny new tax reform policy wrapped and signed underneath their Christmas trees. The $106.7BN authorized was the largest volume announced since April of 2015 and the third greatest in over 48 months. Most authorizations were already announced before the tax bill was even signed into law, as corporations were optimistic with however policy details would be ironed out, particularly surrounding the corporate rate and cash repatriation.

    Read full report here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update December w. 2017 review.pdf




  • Guzman Share Monthly Repurchase Report with Q3 Review - November 2017 
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for November 2017

    Summary: Twas’ the month before December, when all through the S&P, many sectors were announcing buybacks including cons. discretionary. The repurchase plans were authorized, moderate in dollars and shares, even in anticipation that a tax reform bill would soon be there. 

    Merck’s new $10BN authorization led the way in November, along with a dividend increase for all shareholders to remember. With mostly smaller plans, $790M was the mean announcement size, which was below recent monthly averages.

    The final report of 2017: “an active month with Q4 in full gear”; Happy Holidays to all and to all a prosperous New Year!

    Read full report here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update November 2017.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report - October 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for October 2017

    Summary: The leaves may have been falling in October, but share buyback authorizations were on the rise. Months that reside in the midst of earnings reporting generally experience an uptick in authorizations and the first month of Q4 was no different. Despite not releasing earnings in October, Wal-Mart (WMT) drove volume with a $20BN announcement (44% of all volume authorized in Oct.). The $20BN WMT authorization has a target spend period of two years, which is roughly in line with their recent repurchase activity having spent ~$19BN in the past eight quarters. All eyes remain on tax reform, which if passed, would likely be a boon for buyback activity due to repatriation (proposed 12% rate) and potentially greater retained earnings on a lower corporate rate.

    Read full report here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update October 2017.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report - September 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for September 2017

    Summary: The Autumnal Equinox wasn’t the only onset in late September, as earnings season got underway and with it new share repurchase authorizations. Industrial and Tech names led the way as Norfolk Southern authorized 50M shares (~$6.5BN) followed by a Texas Instruments $6BN announcement. Also of note, Anadarko Petroleum authorized a $2.5BN plan through 2018 after only buying less than $400M in total over the past 10 years; $1BN to be purchased in 2017 due to the “value of [their] assets and the highly accretive nature of this program.” Notwithstanding Anadarko, corporates still seem to be in a decreased buyback activity holding pattern ahead of any potential legislative reform, but look for an uptick in announcements in October with earnings reporting in full swing.

    Read full report here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update September 2017.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report with Q2 Review - August 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for August 2017

    Summary: August is typically a quieter month in the capital markets and this August was no different when it came to repurchase announcements. With large authorizations few and far between, volumes remained low on a bump in number of announcements. This led to an average authorization of $417M, the lowest since pre-2014. More on low volumes included in our Q2 Review.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase with Q2 Review - August 2017.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report - July 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for July 2017

    Summary: July saw the lowest volume in new share repurchase authorizations in over three years. There were no authorizations over $5BN, which is practically as rare these days as a solar eclipse (no special glasses needed to notice this). The largest announcement came in at just $3BN, courtesy of eBay (EBAY), followed by Discover’s (DFS) $2.5BN authorization. Also of note, Kinder Morgan (KMI) announced a new $2BN plan, citing the “ability to be opportunistic” at a time when the stock trades cheaply compared to peers’ DCF multiples. This supports a potential trend to keep an eye on: the energy sector slowly returning to the buyback space.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update July 2017.pdf


  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report - June 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for June 2017

    Summary: With U.S. banks announcing their capital return plans following Federal Reserve approval, the financial sector dominated the buyback headlines in June. Save for a few consumer names, such as Walgreens ($5BN) and Kroger ($1BN), all of the large announcements came from Financials. JPMorgan announced its largest repurchase authorization since the Financial Crisis ($19.4BN), while Citigroup announced its largest buyback plan to date ($15.6BN). This sector’s burst of activity at the end of the month led to the greatest monthly volume in share repurchase authorization since April of 2015 and the third greatest since the start of 2014.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update June 2017.pdf




  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report - April 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for April 2017.

    Summary: “April showers” came in the form of earnings season and a large volume of share repurchase authorizations. With only 28 companies announcing sizeable buybacks, a few downpours of $5BN+ announcements buoyed the average size to over $1.6BN. This was led primarily by Goldman Sachs’ 50M shares (~$11.3BN) and Intel’s $10BN authorization. Travelers Co’s and Visa’s $5BN plan and Ameriprise Financials’ $2.5BN announcement, coupled with Goldman’s authorization, had Financials constituting over 50% of all buybackvolume authorized in April. We’ll be on the lookout to see if these“April showers bring May flowers” into the buyback market.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update Apr 2017.pdf


  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report - March 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for March 2017.

    Summary: March may have brought the Vernal (Spring) Equinox, but it didn’t spring large volumes of new share repurchase authorizations. The biggest buyback announced was Verizon’s 100M share (~$5BN) authorization. The Cyclical Consumer sector was the most active with Best Buy and VF Corp each with a $5BN plan announcement. Other notable announcements came from ConocoPhillips ($3BN) and General Dynamics (10M shares/~$1.9BN). On long-term corporate share repurchase trends, tax reform in Washington could be a major influencer but based on recent Treasury Secretary Mnuchin comments, it appears that we’ll have to wait until the Fall, at the earliest, to see what that may look like.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update March 2017(2).pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report - February 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for February 2017.

    Summary: Love wasn’t the only thing in the air around Valentine’s Day, as a surge of companies announced sizeable stock buybacks. The healthcare industry, particularly three of the largest health insurance providers, was amongst the notable participants. Aetna, Cigna, and Humana all announced authorizations greater than $2.25BN, despite largely refraining from buybacks in 2016. The timing is noteworthy, as it followed the termination of the Humana-Aetna and Cigna-Anthem mergers and preceded the impending “Repeal and Replace” of Obamacare.

    Read full analysis here: Guzman Monthly Share Repurchase Update 2-17.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report - January 2017
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for January 2017.

    Summary: January was the calm before the buyback storm that is February and earnings season. The inaugural month of 2017 arrived with low share repurchase authorization volume and number of authorizations. 31 companies announced buybacks greater than $25MM, compared to LTM average of 47, for a total volume of $25.6BN. There was no mega-authorization, or even an authorization greater than $5BN, leading to below average start to the year.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update Jan 2017.pdf



  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report with 2016 Review – December 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for December 2016.

    Summary: In 2016, there were 575 share repurchase announcements greater than $25MM, representing volume of approximately $575MM. While volume is ultimately down -19% Y-o-Y, the average announcement size was just shy of $BN, up +12% from 2015. The technology sector led the way, comprising 24% of all authorizations, including, by far, the two biggest announcements of the year in Microsoft ($40BN) and Apple ($3 BN). As we noted in last month’s review of Q3’16 buyback activity, we don’t expect volumes to drop significantly, if at all, in 2017 with current cash levels at record highs and with the possibility of an additional windfall of cash that could be repatriated stemming from tax policy reform.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update December 2016 w. 2016 review.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report with Q3 Review – November 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for November 2016.

    Summary: With the world focusing on the Elections, share repurchase activity flew under the radar in November. Yet, the month was busy in both number and volume of new buyback authorizations, including an impressive 24 announcements greater than $1BN. Perhaps the most notable was Facebook’s maiden voyage into the buyback world, with a $6BN authorization.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update November 2016 with Q3 Review.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report – October 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for October 2016.

    Summary: Perhaps waiting for the U.S. Election storm to pass, October wasfairly quiet on the share repurchase front. 37 companiesannounced authorizations greater than $25MM, totaling ~$31BNin volume. The largest announcement was Alphabet’s return tobuybacks after a brief hiatus, with a $7,019,340,976.83authorization. True to Google fashion, this amount was theresult of the mathematical formula of 26 [letters in thealphabet] to the power of the constant “e” multiplied by $1MM.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update October 16.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report – September 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for September 2016.

    Summary: September saw only 26 announcements of over $25MM, yet total volume was propelled by huge announcements from MSFT and AXP. Microsoft announced a $40BN authorization, the largest of 2016, as they’re on pace to fulfill their prior 2013 $40BN authorization by year end. American Express authorized a 150MM share plan, which at the time of announcement equated to over $9.6BN.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update September 2016.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report – August 2016 with Q2'16 Review
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for August 2016 with Q2'16 Review.

    Summary: With much of the finance world on vacation in August,repurchase activity relaxed, as well. August’s $19BN inannounced share repurchase authorizations was the lowestmonthly volume seen since 2013. Devoid of any authorizationsgreater than $3BN, the average size of $439MM was also thelowest since August 2015.

    Read full analysis here:Monthly Share Repurchase Update August 2016 with Q2'16 Review.pdf

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report – May 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for May 2016.


    Summary: Moderation was the theme of corporate share repurchase activity in May. Without any of the “mega announcements” seen in recent months, volume of announced authorizations were directly in line with TTM median volume of $42BN. The average announcement size was $802MN, marginally above the corresponding TTM median of ~$700MN.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update May 2016

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report – April 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for April 2016.


    Summary: “April showers” came in the form of a $35BN repurchase authorization from Apple, the largest announcement of the year and the third largest since 2014 (behind $50BN from GE and Apple both in April of 2015). Only 28 companies announced authorizations over $25MM, but a handful of multi-billion dollar announcements buoyed the volume levels.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update April 2016

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report – March 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for March 2016.


    Summary: Resulting from a light earnings calendar, share repurchase announcement activity was quiet in March. Only 43 companies announced authorizations greater than $25MM for a total volume of ~$24BN. Despite Oracle’s $10BN “mega- announcement”, volume of announcements saw its lowest levels since the start of 2015.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update March 2016

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Report – February 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for February 2016.


    Summary: On the back of a busy earnings calendar, February brought a flurry of share repurchase announcement activity. We saw the highest number of announcements in the past two years and heightened levels of volumes. However, the average announcement size was only $675MM, below recent averages.

    Read full analysis here: February Share Repurchase Report with Q4 Review

  • Guzman Share Repurchase Update – January 2016
    Guzman & Company’s Investment Banking team released its Share Repurchase Update for January 2016.


    Summary: Despite volatility in global equity markets, U.S. corporations continued to announce new share repurchase authorizations at the start of 2016. 40 companies announced authorizations greater than $25MM in January, in line with 2015 announcements. However, the $43BN in announcements is a 64% increase Y-o-Y.

    Read full analysis here: Monthly Share Repurchase Update January 2016

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